These figures are planning targets, not contractual commitments. All architectural decisions in this documentation are validated against the Year 1 figures. Year 3 projections are used to verify that the architecture does not require fundamental rework at projected growth.
Traffic Scale
| Metric | Year 1 Estimate | Year 3 Projection |
|---|
| Registered users | 5 million | 20 million |
| Monthly active users | 2 million | 8 million |
| Peak concurrent streams | 150,000 | 600,000 |
| Content uploads per day | 15,000 items | 60,000 items |
| Total content items | 3 million | 20 million |
| Peak API RPS | 50,000 RPS | 200,000 RPS |
| Peak CDN egress | ~1.5 Tbps | ~6 Tbps |
| Active creator accounts | 50,000 | 200,000 |
| Monthly subscription transactions | 200,000 | 1 million |
Bandwidth Profile
| Scenario | Estimate |
|---|
| Average video stream bitrate (blended 720p/1080p) | ~3.5 Mbps |
| Average audio stream bitrate (blended 128/256 kbps) | ~0.2 Mbps |
| 150,000 concurrent streams (~10% audio) | ~480 Gbps sustained |
| Peak factor (1.5×) | ~720 Gbps |
| CDN over-provisioning buffer (2×) | ~1.5 Tbps capacity required |
| Nigeria origin bandwidth (residency content) | ~10 Gbps |
| Upload ingress | ~5 Gbps (15,000 video + 5,000 audio uploads/day) |
Storage Growth Model — Year 1
| Component | Estimate |
|---|
| Raw video (pre-transcode staging, 30-day retention) | ~290 TB |
| Raw audio (pre-transcode staging, 30-day retention) | ~10 TB |
| Transcoded video — hot tier (top 10% of catalogue, all resolutions) | ~1.9 PB |
| Transcoded audio — hot tier (top 10% of audio catalogue, all bitrate variants) | ~50 TB |
| Transcoded video — cold tier (remaining video catalogue) | ~4.8 PB |
| Transcoded audio — cold tier (remaining audio catalogue) | ~150 TB |
| Nigeria Residency storage (~5% of uploads) | ~200 TB |
| Cover art, thumbnails, and metadata | ~20 TB |
| ML training data (user events, feature store) | ~100 TB |
| Logs, metrics, audit data | ~50 TB |
| Total (Year 1) | ~7.6 PB |
Hot storage costs approximately 5–10× cold storage per GB. The automated tiering engine (see ADR-005) keeps the hot tier limited to the top 10% of content by view frequency, reducing storage OPEX by 60–70% compared to a fully hot catalogue.
Concurrency Model
At 150,000 peak concurrent streams, MCSP does not serve segments from origin. All media delivery routes through CDN edge nodes — origin bandwidth is bounded by ingestion and transcoding throughput, not by playback egress. See ADR-002 for the CDN-first delivery decision.