Strategy Backtesting

Agentic Wallet provides backtesting and paper trading capabilities to validate agent strategies before committing real funds. This enables safe strategy development and confidence in autonomous agent behavior.

Overview

Strategy testing provides:

Backtesting: Simulate historical strategy performance
Paper Trading: Execute intents without on-chain submission
Pass/Fail Metrics: Automated strategy validation
PnL Tracking: Profit and loss calculation per step
Autonomous Decision Validation: Test rule-based agent logic

Backtesting is required for agents when AGENT_REQUIRE_BACKTEST_PASS=true is set in production.

Backtesting Workflow

Backtests evaluate a sequence of strategy steps and calculate success rates.

Define Strategy Steps

Create step sequence

Each step represents an intent with a timestamp and optional PnL:

{
  "walletId": "<wallet-id>",
  "name": "daily-swap-strategy",
  "steps": [
    {
      "type": "swap",
      "protocol": "jupiter",
      "intent": {
        "inputMint": "So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112",
        "outputMint": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
        "amount": 1000000,
        "slippageBps": 50
      },
      "timestamp": "2026-03-01T09:00:00.000Z",
      "simulatedPnlLamports": 50000
    },
    {
      "type": "swap",
      "protocol": "jupiter",
      "intent": {
        "inputMint": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
        "outputMint": "So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112",
        "amount": 1000000,
        "slippageBps": 50
      },
      "timestamp": "2026-03-01T15:00:00.000Z",
      "simulatedPnlLamports": -20000
    }
  ],
  "minimumPassRate": 0.7
}

Run backtest

curl -X POST http://localhost:3000/api/v1/strategy/backtest \
  -H 'x-api-key: dev-api-key' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d @strategy.json

Evaluate results

Response:

{
  "data": {
    "runId": "<uuid>",
    "walletId": "<wallet-id>",
    "name": "daily-swap-strategy",
    "totalSteps": 2,
    "passedSteps": 1,
    "failedSteps": 1,
    "passRate": 0.5,
    "totalPnlLamports": 30000,
    "passed": false,
    "createdAt": "2026-03-08T12:00:00.000Z"
  }
}

This strategy has passRate: 0.5 but minimumPassRate: 0.7, so passed: false.

Using the CLI

npm run cli -- strategy backtest \
  --wallet-id <wallet-id> \
  --name "smoke-test-strategy" \
  --steps '[
    {
      "type":"transfer_sol",
      "protocol":"system-program",
      "intent":{"destination":"<pubkey>","lamports":1000},
      "timestamp":"2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "simulatedPnlLamports":0
    }
  ]'

Using the SDK

import { AgenticWalletSDK } from '@agentic-wallet/sdk';

const client = new AgenticWalletSDK(
  'http://localhost:3000',
  { 'x-api-key': 'dev-api-key' }
);

const result = await client.strategy.backtest({
  walletId: '<wallet-id>',
  name: 'swing-trade-strategy',
  steps: [
    {
      type: 'swap',
      protocol: 'jupiter',
      intent: {
        inputMint: 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112',
        outputMint: 'EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v',
        amount: 1_000_000,
        slippageBps: 50,
      },
      timestamp: '2026-03-01T09:00:00.000Z',
      simulatedPnlLamports: 75_000,
    },
    {
      type: 'swap',
      protocol: 'jupiter',
      intent: {
        inputMint: 'EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v',
        outputMint: 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112',
        amount: 1_000_000,
        slippageBps: 50,
      },
      timestamp: '2026-03-01T18:00:00.000Z',
      simulatedPnlLamports: 120_000,
    },
  ],
  minimumPassRate: 0.8,
});

console.log(`Backtest ${result.passed ? 'PASSED' : 'FAILED'}`);
console.log(`Pass rate: ${(result.passRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
console.log(`Total PnL: ${result.totalPnlLamports} lamports`);

PnL Calculation

Steps with simulatedPnlLamports >= 0 are counted as passed:

let passedSteps = 0;
let totalPnlLamports = 0;

for (const step of steps) {
  const pnl = step.simulatedPnlLamports ?? 0;
  totalPnlLamports += pnl;
  
  if (pnl >= 0) {
    passedSteps += 1;
  }
}

const passRate = passedSteps / steps.length;
const passed = passRate >= minimumPassRate;

Example Scenarios

Scenario 1: All Profitable

{
  "totalSteps": 5,
  "passedSteps": 5,
  "passRate": 1.0,
  "totalPnlLamports": 500000,
  "passed": true
}

Scenario 2: Mixed Results

{
  "totalSteps": 10,
  "passedSteps": 7,
  "passRate": 0.7,
  "totalPnlLamports": 150000,
  "passed": true
}

Scenario 3: Below Threshold

{
  "totalSteps": 10,
  "passedSteps": 6,
  "passRate": 0.6,
  "totalPnlLamports": -50000,
  "passed": false
}

Paper Trading Mode

Paper trading executes real intent logic without on-chain submission.

Execute Paper Trade

npm run cli -- strategy paper-execute \
  --agent-id <agent-id> \
  --wallet-id <wallet-id> \
  --type swap \
  --protocol jupiter \
  --intent '{"inputMint":"So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112","outputMint":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","amount":1000000,"slippageBps":50}'

const paperTrade = await client.strategy.paperExecute({
  agentId: '<agent-id>',
  walletId: '<wallet-id>',
  type: 'swap',
  protocol: 'jupiter',
  intent: {
    inputMint: 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112',
    outputMint: 'EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v',
    amount: 1_000_000,
    slippageBps: 50,
  },
});

console.log('Paper trade recorded:', paperTrade.id);

curl -X POST http://localhost:3000/api/v1/strategy/paper/execute \
  -H 'x-api-key: dev-api-key' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{
    "agentId": "<agent-id>",
    "walletId": "<wallet-id>",
    "type": "swap",
    "protocol": "jupiter",
    "intent": {
      "inputMint": "So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112",
      "outputMint": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
      "amount": 1000000,
      "slippageBps": 50
    }
  }'

List Paper Trades

npm run cli -- strategy paper-list <agent-id>

Response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "id": "<uuid>",
      "agentId": "<agent-id>",
      "walletId": "<wallet-id>",
      "type": "swap",
      "protocol": "jupiter",
      "intent": { ... },
      "createdAt": "2026-03-08T12:30:00.000Z"
    }
  ]
}

Paper trades are stored in-memory with a 500-record cap per agent.

Autonomous Decision Engine

Agents can use backtesting to validate autonomous strategies before enabling them.

Strategy Steps

Define repeatable actions with cooldowns and caps:

const agent = await client.agents.create({
  name: 'backtest-validated-agent',
  executionMode: 'autonomous',
  autonomy: {
    enabled: true,
    mode: 'execute',
    cadenceSeconds: 60,
    maxActionsPerHour: 10,
    steps: [
      {
        id: 'daily-swap',
        type: 'swap',
        protocol: 'jupiter',
        intent: {
          inputMint: 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112',
          outputMint: 'EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v',
          amount: 1_000_000,
          slippageBps: 50,
        },
        maxRuns: 5,
        cooldownSeconds: 3600,  // 1 hour cooldown
      },
    ],
  },
});

Strategy Conditions

Use rules to trigger actions based on metrics:

autonomy: {
  enabled: true,
  mode: 'execute',
  rules: [
    {
      id: 'low-balance-rebalance',
      when: [
        { metric: 'balance_lamports', op: 'lt', value: 1_000_000 }
      ],
      then: {
        type: 'transfer_sol',
        protocol: 'system-program',
        intent: {
          destination: '{{knownWallet0}}',
          lamports: 500_000,
        },
      },
      maxRuns: 3,
      cooldownSeconds: 300,
    },
    {
      id: 'high-balance-stake',
      when: [
        { metric: 'balance_lamports', op: 'gt', value: 10_000_000 }
      ],
      then: {
        type: 'stake',
        protocol: 'marinade',
        intent: {
          lamports: 5_000_000,
        },
      },
      maxRuns: 1,
      cooldownSeconds: 86400,  // 24 hours
    },
  ],
}

Available Metrics

tick: Autonomous loop iteration count
balance_lamports: Current wallet SOL balance
known_wallets_count: Number of registered wallets

Comparison Operators

gt: Greater than
gte: Greater than or equal
lt: Less than
lte: Less than or equal
eq: Equal

Template Variables

Use dynamic values in intents:

{
  "destination": "{{knownWallet0}}",
  "lamports": "{{balanceLamports}}",
  "memo": "Transfer at tick {{tick}}"
}

Supported variables:

{{tick}}
{{walletId}}
{{balanceLamports}}
{{knownWallet0}}, {{knownWallet1}}

Enforcing Backtest Requirements

Production Governance

Require passing backtests before agent activation:

AGENT_REQUIRE_BACKTEST_PASS=true

When enabled:

Agents must have a passing backtest in their wallet history
Autonomous agents cannot start without a passing backtest
Failed backtests block agent execution

Checking Latest Backtest

const agent = await client.agents.get('<agent-id>');
const backtest = await client.strategy.getLatestBacktest(agent.walletId);

if (!backtest || !backtest.passed) {
  console.error('Agent cannot start: no passing backtest');
  return;
}

await client.agents.start(agent.id);

Paper Trading for Agents

Set autonomous agents to paper trading mode:

const agent = await client.agents.create({
  name: 'paper-trading-agent',
  executionMode: 'autonomous',
  autonomy: {
    enabled: true,
    mode: 'paper',  // All intents will be paper-only
    steps: [
      {
        id: 'test-swap',
        type: 'swap',
        protocol: 'jupiter',
        intent: { ... },
      },
    ],
  },
});

In paper mode, all autonomous actions are logged but not executed on-chain.

Per-Step Paper Mode

steps: [
  {
    id: 'real-transfer',
    type: 'transfer_sol',
    protocol: 'system-program',
    paperOnly: false,  // Execute on-chain
    intent: { ... },
  },
  {
    id: 'test-swap',
    type: 'swap',
    protocol: 'jupiter',
    paperOnly: true,  // Paper trade only
    intent: { ... },
  },
]

CLI Strategy Wizard

Interactive strategy builder:

npm run cli -- interactive

Select Strategy Wizard and follow prompts:

Choose wallet
Define strategy name
Add steps (type, protocol, intent, PnL)
Set minimum pass rate
Run backtest
Review results

Advanced Patterns

Monte Carlo Backtesting

Run multiple backtest iterations with randomized PnL:

const runMonteCarloBacktest = async (
  walletId: string,
  strategy: any,
  iterations: number
) => {
  const results = [];
  
  for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {
    const randomizedSteps = strategy.steps.map(step => ({
      ...step,
      simulatedPnlLamports: Math.floor(
        Math.random() * 200_000 - 100_000  // Random between -100k and +100k
      ),
    }));
    
    const result = await client.strategy.backtest({
      walletId,
      name: `monte-carlo-${i}`,
      steps: randomizedSteps,
      minimumPassRate: 0.6,
    });
    
    results.push(result);
  }
  
  const passRate = results.filter(r => r.passed).length / results.length;
  console.log(`Monte Carlo pass rate: ${(passRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
  
  return results;
};

Walk-Forward Analysis

Backtest on rolling time windows:

const windows = [
  { start: '2026-01-01', end: '2026-01-31' },
  { start: '2026-02-01', end: '2026-02-28' },
  { start: '2026-03-01', end: '2026-03-31' },
];

for (const window of windows) {
  const steps = generateStepsForWindow(window);
  const result = await client.strategy.backtest({
    walletId: '<wallet-id>',
    name: `walk-forward-${window.start}`,
    steps,
    minimumPassRate: 0.7,
  });
  
  console.log(`${window.start}: ${result.passed ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}`);
}

Usage Guides

Advanced

Overview

Backtesting Workflow

Define Strategy Steps

Using the CLI

Using the SDK

PnL Calculation

Paper Trading Mode

Execute Paper Trade

List Paper Trades

Autonomous Decision Engine

Strategy Steps

Strategy Conditions

Template Variables

Enforcing Backtest Requirements

Production Governance

Checking Latest Backtest

Paper Trading for Agents

Per-Step Paper Mode

CLI Strategy Wizard

Advanced Patterns

Monte Carlo Backtesting

Walk-Forward Analysis

Next Steps

Multi-Agent Orchestration

Escrow Program

​Overview

​Backtesting Workflow

​Define Strategy Steps

​Using the CLI

​Using the SDK

​PnL Calculation

​Paper Trading Mode

​Execute Paper Trade

​List Paper Trades

​Autonomous Decision Engine

​Strategy Steps

​Strategy Conditions

​Template Variables

​Enforcing Backtest Requirements

​Production Governance

​Checking Latest Backtest

​Paper Trading for Agents

​Per-Step Paper Mode

​CLI Strategy Wizard

​Advanced Patterns

​Monte Carlo Backtesting

​Walk-Forward Analysis

​Next Steps

Multi-Agent Orchestration

Escrow Program

Overview

Backtesting Workflow

Define Strategy Steps

Using the CLI

Using the SDK

PnL Calculation

Paper Trading Mode

Execute Paper Trade

List Paper Trades

Autonomous Decision Engine

Strategy Steps

Strategy Conditions

Template Variables

Enforcing Backtest Requirements

Production Governance

Checking Latest Backtest

Paper Trading for Agents

Per-Step Paper Mode

CLI Strategy Wizard

Advanced Patterns

Monte Carlo Backtesting

Walk-Forward Analysis

Next Steps