Traffic Modelling Assumptions
All projections are based on the following modelling parameters:
- Peak-to-average ratio: 3× (peak concurrent streams at prime time = 3× daily average)
- Video average bitrate at peak: 4 Mbps (HLS adaptive bitrate; mix of 720p and 1080p dominant quality tier)
- Audio average bitrate at peak: 192 kbps (stereo AAC-LC)
- Nigeria content fraction: 10% of total catalogue; 15% of total playback sessions
- Nigeria PoP offload rate: 70% (30% cache miss served from af-south-1 origin)
- Global CDN offload rate: 85% (15% cache miss rate for long-tail content)
Year 1 Traffic Projections
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Monthly active users | 500,000 |
| Daily active users | 150,000 |
| Average sessions per DAU per day | 1.8 |
| Average session duration | 35 minutes |
| Average concurrent streams (sustained) | 55,000 |
| Peak concurrent streams | 150,000 |
| Total hours streamed per day | 8.75M hours |
| Total hours streamed per month | ~265M hours |
Year 1 Bandwidth Estimates
| Stream type | Concurrent streams (peak) | Avg bitrate | Required egress |
|---|
| Video (720p–1080p) | 130,000 | 4 Mbps | ~520 Gbps |
| Video (4K/HDR, premium) | 5,000 | 20 Mbps | ~100 Gbps |
| Audio only | 15,000 | 192 kbps | ~2.9 Gbps |
| Total peak egress | 150,000 | | ~623 Gbps |
Year 3 Traffic Projections
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Monthly active users | 2,500,000 |
| Daily active users | 750,000 |
| Average sessions per DAU per day | 2.0 |
| Average session duration | 38 minutes |
| Average concurrent streams (sustained) | 190,000 |
| Peak concurrent streams | 500,000 |
| Total hours streamed per day | 47.5M hours |
| Total hours streamed per month | ~1.4 billion hours |
Year 3 Bandwidth Estimates
| Stream type | Concurrent streams (peak) | Avg bitrate | Required egress |
|---|
| Video (720p–1080p) | 400,000 | 4 Mbps | ~1.6 Tbps |
| Video (4K/HDR, premium) | 50,000 | 20 Mbps | ~1.0 Tbps |
| Audio only | 50,000 | 192 kbps | ~9.6 Gbps |
| Total peak egress | 500,000 | | ~2.6 Tbps |
Nigeria-Specific Traffic
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 3 |
|---|
| Nigeria DAU | 45,000 (30% of total) | 200,000 (27% of total) |
| Peak concurrent streams (Nigeria) | 50,000 | 150,000 |
| Percentage served from MTN PoP | 70% | 75% |
| Nigeria peak egress (MTN PoP) | ~140 Gbps | ~420 Gbps |
| Nigeria peak egress (af-south-1 origin) | ~42 Gbps | ~105 Gbps |
Nigeria traffic projections assume 70% CDN PoP offload at Year 1. Increasing the MTN PoP cache capacity by Year 3 (target 75% offload) requires capacity planning with MTN networks. Origin egress from af-south-1 is significantly more expensive per GB than CDN delivery, making PoP offload rate a cost-critical metric.
API Traffic Projections
| API tier | Year 1 peak RPS | Year 3 peak RPS |
|---|
| Auth Service (token validation) | 12,000 | 50,000 |
| Content Service (feed, search) | 8,000 | 35,000 |
| Playback Service (manifest + DRM token) | 5,000 | 20,000 |
| Engagement Service (likes, views, history) | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Upload API | 200 | 800 |
| Total platform API | ~50,000 RPS | ~206,000 RPS |
Bandwidth Cost Model (Indicative)
| Delivery path | Rate basis | Year 1 monthly estimate | Year 3 monthly estimate |
|---|
| CloudFront CDN (global) | CDN committed pricing | ~$180K | ~$720K |
| MTN PoP (Nigeria) | MTN commercial terms | Volume-based (contract) | Volume-based (contract) |
| af-south-1 S3 egress | $0.09/GB (standard) | ~$18K | ~$60K |
| us-east-1 API egress | $0.09/GB | ~$8K | ~$30K |
| Total monthly data cost (indicative) | | ~$206K | ~$810K |
All cost estimates are indicative and based on public list pricing. Actual costs will depend on committed use discounts, CDN negotiated rates, and actual traffic profiles. CDN costs at Year 3 scale are typically subject to significant volume negotiation.
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