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The Oracle is HashPilot’s scenario simulation engine. It takes your real mining parameters, lets you dial in market assumptions across four dimensions, and produces a 3×3 scenario matrix showing projected hCASH earnings and USD value across every combination of market condition and time horizon. When you are ready to go deeper, the GET ORACLE READING button sends the full matrix to an AI analyst that interprets the numbers and delivers a structured strategic verdict.

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Four-Step Process

1

Enter base setup

Provide the four inputs that anchor the simulation to your real operation. These are not slider estimates — they should reflect your actual current state.
2

Adjust Oracle sliders

Use the four sliders to model the market and network conditions you want to simulate. The matrix updates live with every change.
3

Read the scenario matrix

Interpret the 3×3 grid: rows represent Bear / Base / Bull market cases, columns represent 30 / 90 / 180-day time horizons. Each cell shows hCASH earned, USD value, and your projected network share percentage.
4

Get an AI Oracle reading

Click GET ORACLE READING to send your slider configuration and matrix to the AI backend. The reading appears in a structured format below the matrix with a verdict, critical factor, recommended move, and risk alert.

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Section 1: Base Setup

These four fields define your operational baseline. All simulation math derives from these inputs.

My Hashrate (TH/s)

Your total contributed hashrate in terahashes per second. This determines your share of block rewards relative to the network.

Network Hashrate (TH/s)

The current total network hashrate. Combined with your hashrate, this produces your starting network share percentage.

hCASH Price (USD)

The current hCASH price in USD. Used to convert projected hCASH earnings into dollar values across all matrix cells.

Facility Tier

Your current facility tier: STARTER, STANDARD, ADVANCED, or ELITE. Tier affects which upgrades are available in the FOMO Machine but is recorded as context in Oracle readings. See Facility Tiers for tier specifications.

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Section 2: Oracle Sliders

The four sliders let you stress-test your operation against a range of market and network scenarios. Bear and Bull case multipliers are applied on top of your slider settings — so your slider values represent the base case starting point, which is then amplified or dampened per scenario.
Models the expected change in total network hashrate over the simulation period. A positive value means more miners are joining the network, diluting your share. A negative value means miners are leaving.
  • Pessimistic end (−50%): Network contracts significantly — your share grows.
  • Neutral (0%): Network stays flat; your share is constant.
  • Optimistic end (+300%): Massive network growth; your share is compressed heavily.
In the Bear case, this slider’s value is multiplied by 1.5 (more growth than expected). In the Bull case, it is multiplied by 0.5 (less growth than expected).
Models the percentage change in hCASH price over the simulation period relative to your base setup price.
  • Crash (−80%): Price collapses — USD values plummet even if hCASH earnings hold steady.
  • Stable (0%): Price is unchanged.
  • Bullish (+500%): Price 6× — dramatically amplifies USD-denominated returns.
In the Bear case, this slider’s value is multiplied by 0.5 (weaker price move). In the Bull case, it is multiplied by 2.0 (stronger price move).
Estimates how many new participant miners enter the network during the simulation period. Each new miner is assumed to contribute 50 TH/s to the total network hashrate.
futureNetHashrate = netHashrate × (1 + simNetGrowth/100) + (simNewPlayers × 50)
In the Bear case, this count is scaled by the same 1.5× network multiplier, representing an aggressive mining influx. In the Bull case, it is scaled by 0.5×.
The number of emission halvings that occur within the simulation window. This is a discrete selector (0, 1, 2, or 3) rather than a continuous slider.Each halving reduces the block emission rate by 50%. The halving factor applied to all earnings projections is:
emissionFactor = Math.pow(0.5, halvings)
One halving cuts projected hCASH earnings in half. Two halvings cut them to 25% of base. Three halvings to 12.5%.

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Section 3: The Scenario Matrix

The 3×3 matrix is the core output of the Oracle. It is rebuilt on every slider change.

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Bear / Base / Bull Case Multipliers

CaseNetwork Growth MultiplierPrice Delta Multiplier
BEAR1.5× your slider value0.5× your slider value
BASE1.0× (no adjustment)1.0× (no adjustment)
BULL0.5× your slider value2.0× your slider value
Bear assumes worse network conditions (more hashrate dilution) and a weaker price. Bull assumes the network grows less aggressively while price outperforms your base case estimate.

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Earnings Formula

For each matrix cell, the simulation calculates: 
futureShare     = myHashrate / futureNetHashrate     (as a decimal)
baseDaily       = 1.25 × 43200 × futureShare
emissionFactor  = Math.pow(0.5, halvings)
totalHCash      = baseDaily × days × emissionFactor
futurePrice     = basePrice × (1 + simPriceMove / 100)
totalUsd        = totalHCash × futurePrice
The constant 1.25 × 43200 represents the base daily block reward rate at 100% network share. 43200 is the approximate number of blocks per day and 1.25 is the per-block reward coefficient.

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Reading a Cell

Each cell in the matrix shows three values:
  • hCASH earned — total hCASH projected for that case and timeline
  • USD value — hCASH earned × the scenario-adjusted future price
  • Network share % — your projected share of total network hashrate after all growth factors are applied
The Oracle simulation uses deterministic math with fixed multipliers. It is a structured thinking tool, not a financial forecast. Real outcomes depend on variables — protocol changes, hardware failure, regulatory shifts — that no simulation can model. All output is labeled “Non-Financial Guidance.”

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Getting an AI Oracle Reading

After reviewing the matrix, click GET ORACLE READING. HashPilot sends your slider configuration and the full matrix to the AI backend (/api/oracle) and streams a structured reading back. The reading follows a consistent format: 
VERDICT:         A one-line call on your overall position
CRITICAL FACTOR: The single biggest variable driving the outcome
BEST MOVE:       The recommended action given current parameters
RISK ALERT:      The main downside risk to watch
ORACLE CONFIDENCE: High / Medium / Low with a brief rationale
The AI reading requires a valid Anthropic API key configured in your deployment environment. If the backend is unreachable, a fallback message is displayed explaining the connectivity issue. See API Keys for setup instructions.

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Exporting the Matrix

Click Export Scenario Matrix below the grid to download a high-resolution PNG of the matrix panel (rendered at 2× pixel ratio). This is useful for sharing projections with a team or saving a snapshot of a specific parameter configuration. The exported file is named hashpilot-oracle-{timestamp}.png.

Mining Fundamentals

Understand the block reward mechanics and hashrate share calculations that power the Oracle formula.

Halvings

A full explainer on the halving schedule, emission reduction mechanics, and strategic implications.

AI Oracle Readings

Learn how the AI reading is structured and how to interpret each section of the Oracle output.

Facility Tiers

Tier specifications and how upgrading affects your effective hashrate and earnings ceiling.

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