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Metaculus notifications keep you informed about activity on questions you care about, new comments, resolution announcements, and more. This guide explains notification types and how to configure them.

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Notification Types

Metaculus supports several types of notifications, each serving a different purpose:

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Question Resolution

Type: predicted_question_resolved
When triggered: A question you forecasted on has been resolved What’s included:
  • Question title and resolution
  • Your final forecast
  • Your score (peer score and baseline)
  • Coverage percentage
  • Forecasts count
  • Links to related questions (if part of a group)
Resolution notifications help you learn from your forecasts. Review your reasoning and score to improve future predictions.

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New Comments

Type: post_new_comments
When triggered: Questions you’re subscribed to receive new comments What’s included:
  • Comment preview text
  • Author username
  • Number of new comments
  • Link to the discussion
  • Up to 8 recent comments in the email
Multiple comments on the same question are batched together in a single notification email sent hourly.

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Comment Mentions

Type: Direct mention notification (instant)
When triggered: Someone mentions your username in a comment What’s included:
  • Comment preview showing the mention
  • Author who mentioned you
  • Context of the discussion
  • Direct link to the comment
Mention notifications are sent immediately, not batched. Use @username to mention someone in a comment.

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Community Prediction Changes

Type: post_cp_change
When triggered: Significant movement in the community prediction What’s included:
  • Direction of change (up, down, expanded, contracted)
  • Magnitude of change
  • Your current forecast vs. new CP
  • Question details
  • For continuous questions: median and quartile changes
  • For binary/MC: percentage point changes and odds ratios
CP change notifications are triggered when:
  • Binary: Change of 10+ percentage points
  • Multiple Choice: Major option probability shift
  • Continuous: Significant percentile movement
Thresholds are calibrated to avoid notification fatigue while catching important developments.

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Question Status Changes

Type: post_status_change
When triggered: Questions change status (opened, closed, resolved) Events:
  • Question opened: A subscribed question is now accepting forecasts
  • Question closed: Forecasting period has ended
  • Question resolved: Final outcome has been determined
  • Question reopened: A closed question is open again
For grouped questions (tournaments), status changes may be batched to show multiple related questions opening or closing together.

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Question Milestones

Type: post_milestone
When triggered: Questions reach significant points in their lifecycle Milestones:
  • 25% of lifespan elapsed
  • 50% of lifespan elapsed
  • 75% of lifespan elapsed
  • Approaching close time
Milestone notifications remind you to update your forecast as the question progresses.

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Scheduled Reminders

Type: post_specific_time
When triggered: You set a custom reminder for a question Use cases:
  • Remind yourself to check for new information
  • Plan to update before close time
  • Review forecast before a key event

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Forecast Auto-Withdrawal

Type: Forecast auto-withdrawal warning
When triggered: Your forecasts are about to be automatically withdrawn due to inactivity What’s included:
  • List of questions affected
  • Withdrawal date
  • Links to update forecasts
  • Account settings link
Forecasts can be set to auto-withdraw if not updated within a specified period. Update your forecast or change your settings to prevent withdrawal.

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Tournament New Questions

Type: Tournament-specific notifications
When triggered: New questions are added to a tournament you’re following What’s included:
  • Question titles
  • Tournament name
  • Opening details
  • Links to start forecasting

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Weekly Top Comments

Type: Weekly digest
When triggered: Every week (if subscribed) What’s included:
  • Top-voted comments from the past week
  • Comment authors
  • Discussion links
  • Most insightful analysis
Weekly comment digests help you stay connected with the best community discussions without checking constantly.

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Managing Notification Settings

Control which notifications you receive:
1

Go to Settings

Navigate to Account Settings → Notifications
2

Choose Delivery Methods

Select whether you want to receive notifications via:
  • Email
  • In-app notifications
  • Both
  • Neither
3

Configure by Type

Enable or disable each notification type independently
4

Save Changes

Click “Save” to apply your preferences

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Mailing Tags

Notifications are organized by mailing tags you can subscribe/unsubscribe from:
Tag: FORECASTED_QUESTION_RESOLUTIONNotifications when questions you forecasted on are resolved.Recommended: Keep enabled to track your performance

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Email Preferences

Customize how emails are delivered:

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Batching

Most notifications are batched and sent hourly to reduce email volume:
  • New comments: Grouped by question
  • Status changes: Grouped by project/tournament
  • CP changes: One per question per day (max)

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Instant Notifications

Some notifications are sent immediately:
  • Comment mentions
  • Urgent tournament updates
  • Account security alerts

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Unsubscribing

To unsubscribe from specific notification types:
1

Via Settings

Go to Account Settings → Notifications and disable the type
2

Via Email

Click “Unsubscribe” link at the bottom of any notification email
3

Granular Control

You can unsubscribe from all emails or just specific types
Unsubscribing from all emails means you won’t receive critical account notifications. Consider disabling only specific types instead.

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In-App Notifications

Beyond emails, Metaculus provides in-app notifications:

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Notification Center

Access your notification center:
  1. Click the bell icon in the top navigation
  2. View recent notifications
  3. Mark as read/unread
  4. Click to navigate to relevant content

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Notification Status

Each notification has a status:
  • Unread: New notification you haven’t seen
  • Read: You’ve clicked or marked as read
  • Email sent: Email was dispatched for this notification

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Clearing Notifications

Click on a notification to mark it as read automatically

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Question Subscriptions

Subscribe to specific questions to receive notifications:
1

Navigate to Question

Open any question page
2

Click Subscribe

Click the “Subscribe” button (bell icon)
3

Choose Notification Types

Select which events trigger notifications:
  • New comments
  • CP changes
  • Status changes
  • Milestones
4

Manage Subscriptions

View all subscriptions in Account Settings → Subscriptions
Subscribe to questions where you:
  • Have an active forecast
  • Want to participate in discussions
  • Are tracking for research or learning
  • Are waiting for resolution

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Project and Tournament Subscriptions

Subscribe to entire projects or tournaments:

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Benefits

  • Get notified of all new questions
  • Receive tournament announcements
  • Stay updated on leaderboard changes
  • Access exclusive tournament content

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How to Subscribe

1

Visit Project Page

Navigate to the project or tournament homepage
2

Click Follow/Subscribe

Click the subscribe button in the project header
3

Configure Preferences

Choose notification frequency and types

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Notification Delivery

Understand how notifications are processed:

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Creation

Notifications are created when: 
Notification.objects.create(
    type=notification_type,
    recipient=user,
    params=notification_params,
)

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Processing

Notifications are processed by a scheduled job:
  1. Collection: Gather pending notifications (hourly)
  2. Filtering: Remove unsubscribed recipients
  3. Grouping: Batch related notifications
  4. Sending: Dispatch email batches
  5. Marking: Set email_sent=True

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Timing

  • Scheduled job: Runs every hour
  • Instant notifications: Sent immediately
  • Daily digests: Sent at configured time
  • Weekly digests: Sent every Monday (typically)
Notifications are stored indefinitely but emails are only sent once. You can always view notification history in your notification center.

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Best Practices

Too many notifications?
  • Disable CP change notifications
  • Switch to weekly digests instead of real-time
  • Unsubscribe from less active questions
  • Disable milestone notifications
Too few notifications?
  • Enable CP change notifications
  • Subscribe to key questions and tournaments
  • Enable tournament new question notifications
Always enable:
  • Comment mentions (direct engagement)
  • Question resolutions (learning from outcomes)
  • Auto-withdrawal warnings (prevent unwanted changes)
Consider enabling:
  • CP changes (stay informed)
  • Tournament updates (competitive advantage)
  • Status changes (timing opportunities)
Optional:
  • Milestones (reminders)
  • Weekly digests (stay connected)
  • New comments (high volume)
  • Check notification center daily
  • Mark important items for follow-up
  • Archive or dismiss irrelevant notifications
  • Use notifications to prioritize which questions to update
Create email filters for Metaculus notifications:
  • Label by type (resolutions, comments, etc.)
  • Auto-archive less important types
  • Star critical notifications
  • Set up smart folders for tournaments

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Troubleshooting

Check these:
  1. Verify email address in account settings
  2. Check spam/junk folder
  3. Ensure notification type is enabled
  4. Confirm you’re subscribed to the question/project
  5. Check that your account email is verified
Still not working?
  • Whitelist @metaculus.com emails
  • Try a different email provider
  • Contact support
Quick fixes:
  1. Disable CP change notifications
  2. Switch to weekly digests
  3. Unsubscribe from old questions
  4. Use the “Unsubscribe from all” option in emails
  5. Review and update notification settings
Normal delays:
  • Batched notifications: Up to 1 hour
  • Weekly digests: Sent at specific times
  • Server load: Brief delays during peak times
Unusual delays:
  • Check Metaculus status page
  • Verify your email server isn’t delaying delivery
  • Contact support if consistently delayed
Try these steps:
  1. Use the unsubscribe link in emails
  2. Disable in account settings
  3. Unsubscribe from individual questions
  4. Clear browser cache and retry
  5. Contact support if issue persists

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API Access

Access notifications programmatically: 
# Get unread notifications
notifications = Notification.objects.filter(
    recipient=user,
    read_at__isnull=True
).order_by('-created_at')

# Mark as read
notification.read_at = timezone.now()
notification.save()

# Get pending email notifications
pending = Notification.objects.filter_pending_email()
See the API reference for complete documentation.

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Future Enhancements

Metaculus is continuously improving notifications:
  • Push notifications: Mobile app notifications
  • Smart batching: ML-powered notification grouping
  • Personalized digests: Customized content based on interests
  • Slack/Discord integration: Notifications in your preferred platform
  • Advanced filters: More granular control over notification triggers
Check the Metaculus blog and announcements for updates on new notification features.

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Next Steps

Making Predictions

Learn how to submit forecasts

Track Record

Monitor your forecasting performance

Question Types

Understand different prediction formats

API Reference

Access notification data via API

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