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Welcome to Metaculus

Metaculus is a platform for making and tracking predictions on future events. Whether you’re interested in technology, politics, science, or economics, you can test your forecasting skills, learn from others, and improve your ability to reason about the future. This guide will walk you through creating an account, finding questions, making your first binary prediction, and viewing your forecast history.
1

Create your account

Visit metaculus.com and click Sign Up in the top right corner.
You can also sign up using Google or other social authentication providers for faster access.

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Fill in your details

  1. Choose a unique username that will be visible to other forecasters
  2. Enter your email address
  3. Create a secure password
  4. Optionally, opt in to the newsletter for forecasting insights
Example signup request
{
  "username": "forecaster_nova",
  "email": "[email protected]",
  "password": "SecurePassword123!",
  "newsletter_optin": true
}
After submitting, you’ll receive a confirmation email. Click the activation link to verify your account (if email verification is enabled), or you’ll be logged in immediately and can start forecasting right away.
Choose a username you’re comfortable with—it will be associated with your public forecasts and comments.
2

Browse questions

Once logged in, explore the questions available for forecasting.

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Find questions to forecast on

There are several ways to discover questions:

Question Discovery

Navigate to Questions in the main menu to browse all open questions by category, including AI, Politics, Science, Economics, and more.

Home Feed

Your home page shows featured questions, trending forecasts, and personalized recommendations based on your interests.

Tournaments

Join competitive tournaments with specific themes and time frames. Great for focused forecasting challenges.

Projects

Explore curated collections of questions organized by topic, organization, or research area.

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Understanding question status

Questions on Metaculus have different statuses:
  • Upcoming: Not yet open for forecasting
  • Open: Currently accepting forecasts
  • Closed: No longer accepting new forecasts, awaiting resolution
  • Resolved: The outcome is known and forecasts have been scored
Focus on Open questions when you’re starting out. You can learn from resolved questions to improve your forecasting skills.
3

Make your first binary prediction

Binary questions are the simplest type—they resolve to either “Yes” or “No”. Let’s make your first forecast.

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Choose a binary question

Look for questions like:
  • “Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 by end of 2026?”
  • “Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in 2026?”
  • “Will humans land on Mars by 2030?”

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Read the question carefully

Before forecasting, review:
  1. Title: The core question being asked
  2. Description: Background context and details
  3. Resolution criteria: Exact conditions that determine Yes/No
  4. Fine print: Edge cases and clarifications
  5. Key dates:
    • Open time: When forecasting begins
    • Close time: Deadline for forecasts
    • Resolve time: Expected resolution date
Always read the resolution criteria carefully! A question about “Will X happen by date Y?” is very different from “Will X happen in year Y?”

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Submit your forecast

1

Enter your probability

Binary forecasts are expressed as probabilities between 0% and 100%:
  • 0%: You’re certain it won’t happen
  • 50%: Completely uncertain (coin flip)
  • 100%: You’re certain it will happen
Move the slider or type a number to set your forecast. Most good forecasts fall between 10% and 90%—extreme confidence (0-5% or 95-100%) should be rare.
2

Add reasoning (optional)

You can explain your forecast in a comment. This helps you and others understand your reasoning, and you can refer back to it later.
Example from binary_question_prediction.tsx
// The BinaryQuestionPrediction component handles the prediction interface
// Located at: front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/
//   question_view/consumer_question_view/prediction/
//   single_question_prediction/binary_question_prediction.tsx

<PredictionBinaryInfo
  showMyPrediction
  question={question}
  canPredict={canPredict}
  size="lg"
  cpMovementVariant="chip"
/>
3

Submit

Click Submit Forecast to save your prediction. Your forecast is now recorded with a timestamp and will be scored when the question resolves.

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Understanding the community prediction

After submitting, you’ll see the Community Prediction (CP)—an aggregated forecast from all forecasters. On some questions, the CP may be hidden until a reveal time to prevent anchoring bias.
Don’t just copy the community prediction! Independent thinking leads to better aggregate forecasts and helps you develop your own forecasting skills.

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Update your forecast

As new information becomes available, you can update your forecast:
  1. Return to the question page
  2. Enter your new probability
  3. Submit the update
Your forecast history is preserved, and your score will be based on the time-weighted average of all your predictions.
Forecast data structure
// From questions/models.py:609
{
  "start_time": "2026-03-04T10:30:00Z",  // When this forecast becomes active
  "end_time": null,  // null if this is your latest forecast
  "probability_yes": 0.73,  // Your probability estimate (0-1)
  "source": "ui",  // How the forecast was made (ui, api, automatic)
  "author_id": 12345,
  "question_id": 67890
}
4

View your forecast history

Track your predictions and see how you’re performing.

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Access your profile

  1. Click on your username in the top right corner
  2. Select Profile from the dropdown menu
Your profile shows:

Overview

Summary of your forecasting activity including total predictions, questions forecasted, and current streak.

Track Record

Detailed performance metrics showing your accuracy across different question types and topics.

Questions

All questions you’ve forecasted on, with your predictions and their current status.

Comments

Your rationales and discussions on various questions.

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Understanding your track record

Navigate to the Track Record tab to see:
  • Peer score: How accurate you are compared to other forecasters
  • Baseline score: How much better you are than a simple baseline
  • Calibration: How well-calibrated your probabilities are
  • Coverage: Number of questions you’ve forecasted on
Scores are calculated after questions resolve. It takes time to build a track record, so don’t worry if you don’t see scores immediately!

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View individual forecasts

From your profile, click on any question to see:
  • Your prediction timeline showing all updates
  • The community prediction over time
  • Your score (if the question is resolved)
  • Movement since your last forecast
Track record structure
// User profiles contain forecast performance data
// Located at: front_end/src/app/(main)/accounts/profile/[id]/track-record/

// Scores are calculated using various methods defined in scoring/constants.py:
// - PEER: Compare against other forecasters
// - BASELINE: Compare against a baseline prediction
// - SPOT_PEER: Score at a specific point in time

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Next steps

Now that you’ve made your first forecast, here’s how to continue your forecasting journey:

Learn about question types

Explore binary, multiple choice, numeric, and date questions to expand your forecasting skills.

Understand scoring

Learn how forecasts are scored and how to improve your accuracy over time.

Join a tournament

Compete with other forecasters in themed competitions with prizes and recognition.

Use the API

Submit forecasts programmatically and build your own forecasting tools.

Improve your calibration

Learn techniques to make more accurate probability estimates.

Explore projects

Join specialized forecasting communities focused on specific domains.

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Best practices for new forecasters

Choose topics where you have some background knowledge or genuine interest. This helps you make more informed predictions and learn faster.
Many forecasting mistakes come from misunderstanding exactly what the question asks. The resolution criteria are the single source of truth.
Avoid extreme predictions (0% or 100%) unless you’re absolutely certain. Most real-world events have some uncertainty. Practice expressing your confidence as percentages.
As you learn new information, revisit your predictions and update them. Good forecasters continuously refine their views.
Leave comments explaining your forecast. This helps you learn from your thinking later and contributes to the community discussion.
Review resolved questions to see what happened and how different forecasters approached them. This is one of the best ways to improve.
Rather than making hundreds of quick forecasts, start with a few questions and update them regularly. Quality matters more than quantity.

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Getting help

Community forums

Join discussions with other forecasters in the comments section of questions.

Documentation

Explore our comprehensive guides on forecasting techniques, scoring algorithms, and platform features.

Support

Contact [email protected] for technical issues or questions about the platform.

GitHub

Report bugs, suggest features, or contribute to the open-source codebase.
Ready to forecast? Head to metaculus.com and start making predictions. The best way to learn is by doing!

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