Skip to main content

Welcome to Metaculus Documentation

Learn how to make accurate predictions, track forecasts, and participate in tournaments on the world’s leading forecasting platform.

Get StartedExplore API
Community Forecast
73%
Based on 1,247 forecasters

Quick start

Get up and running with Metaculus in minutes

1

Create your account

Sign up for a free Metaculus account at metaculus.com. You’ll be able to start making predictions immediately.
# Or authenticate via API
curl -X POST https://metaculus.com/api/auth/signup/ \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"email": "[email protected]", "username": "yourname", "password": "secure123"}'
2

Browse questions

Explore open questions across various topics including technology, politics, science, and economics. Questions range from binary predictions to complex numerical forecasts.
Start with binary questions to familiarize yourself with the forecasting process before moving to more complex question types.
3

Make your first forecast

Click on a question to view details, then submit your prediction. For binary questions, enter a probability between 0% and 100%. For numeric questions, provide a probability distribution.
Your forecasts are scored against eventual outcomes using sophisticated scoring algorithms like Peer Score and Baseline Score.
4

Track your performance

View your track record to see how your predictions perform over time. Metaculus tracks your calibration, Brier scores, and overall ranking compared to other forecasters.

Explore by topic

Dive deeper into Metaculus features and capabilities

Questions

Learn about the different types of questions and how they’re structured

Forecasting

Master the art of making accurate predictions on Metaculus

Scoring

Understand how your forecasts are evaluated and scored

Tournaments

Compete in forecasting tournaments for prizes and recognition

Projects

Organize questions into thematic projects and communities

Leaderboards

Track your ranking and compare performance with other forecasters

User guides

Step-by-step guides for common tasks

Making predictions

Learn how to submit forecasts for different question types

Read guide

Question types

Understand binary, numeric, date, and multiple choice questions

Read guide

Aggregation methods

How Metaculus combines individual forecasts into aggregate predictions

Read guide

Track record

Monitor your forecasting performance and calibration over time

Read guide

API & integrations

Build applications with the Metaculus API

API overview

Get started with the Metaculus REST API

Authentication

Learn how to authenticate API requests with tokens

Make a forecast

Submit predictions programmatically via the API

Fetch questions

Query and retrieve question data using the API

Ready to start forecasting?

Join thousands of forecasters making accurate predictions about the future. Create your account and make your first prediction today.

Get Started NowView on GitHub

Build docs developers (and LLMs) love

Get started for freeTalk to us